Electric load forecasting

The program module responsible for determining the forecast concerning power production operates on the basis of information that is provided as regards the expected heat load in the heating water and process steam. This module operates based on a model of generating facilities, the configuration of their operation, and the method of their utilization by the operators. This data is complemented by a list of process restrictions valid for the selected operating conditions (technological minimums, maximum loads).


The program module contains facilities in the form of a number of characteristics. These are boilers, turbines, generators, bypass stations, heat exchangers, rejection systems (for heat) and a heat accumulator.


It has been assumed that the time period of any calculations is seven days, which means that the results concern the current day and the six days that follow.


The program has a repository of weather forecast parameters, and is used to obtain information for determining the forecast of the CHP load. The data is downloaded to the repository from the relevant meteorological office at hourly intervals. These parameters are stored in tables


  • Forecasts - the weather forecast
  • Weather - the actual weather


The unit operation configuration for the first day of the schedule is determined by the Duty Operating Engineer. The configuration existing at the time of these calculations is assumed by default. If, during calculations of any plan in the configurations assumed, it becomes unfeasible to meet the production requirements (technological minimum, maximum), then the program will change to the correct configuration.


The power price forecast at the Next Day Market is acquired from the data obtained via the Internet from the Power Exchange (Towarowa Giełda Energii S.A.) Price values are stored in tables.


Determination of process restrictions for heat production. The program contains tables of optimal unit working points as a function of configuration, heat production within the heating water, and the process steam flow. The minimum and maximum heat production within water is determined based on the tables for a given configuration and process steam production. Heat production within the heating water limits the possibility of potential charging and discharging the accumulator.


Calculation of maximum and minimum fluxes of accumulator charging and discharging heat. The maximum and minimum accumulator charging and discharging streams are calculated based on the heat production forecast, along with the heating water flows and temperature calculated from the balance, DIR may change and reset the default minimums and maximums with a form in the User interface.


Assigning the heat production to the accumulator and to the heat distribution system according to the Next Day Market power price criterion. The program assigns the accumulator charging or discharging fluxes so that the biggest charging flux is when the Next Day Market price is at its peak level. These are iterative calculations. The economic effect is assessed according to the power price criterion only in the first step of iteration, when the contribution margin is not yet known. In subsequent calculation steps, the criterion is replaced with the contribution margin. As a result of iterative calculations, the optimal working points of the heat generation units and the accumulator are determined, taking into account both process limitations and the DIR settings


Calculation of the contribution margin and power production The program calculates the contribution margin and unit working points with a table of optimal working points - within a specific unit configuration, heat production within the heating water, process steam production, and heat flux to or from the accumulator.


The working points determine the gross active power by the turbine-generator set, the heat production within the heating water and process steam, and the power consumed by unit and non-unit auxiliaries.


The contribution margin for optimisation purposes is determined in the cost module.


The program determines the accumulated heat that is optimal for the "contribution margin", and heat production by the units by changing daily increments of heat in the accumulator.



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